In
1982, Ronald Reagan began the Reagan revolution by signing into law tax
cuts and regulatory changes which would take 20 years to fully take effect.
We have survived
Bill Clinton frankly because, as presidential candidate George W. Bush
said, for eight years he has done nothing. Thank God.
Reagan's legacy
includes fundamental changes in the regulatory environment which resulted
in the skyrocketing of private investment into the economy. Early Reagan
deficits occurred because there wasn't enough cash in the economy. This
happened because the economic stagnation that occurred during the previous
administration left the economy starving for money. The solution: jump
start it. Once Reagan destroyed inflation by reigning in federal spending,
and reignited the economy through tax cuts and large investments into the
military industrial complex, the groundwork had been complete.
Detractors would
dog him and his legacy for years. They called him a deficit spender and
accused him of saddling future generations with debt. It wouldn't be until
the mid to late 1990's that the long term results of Reagan's policies
would be seen.
Once private
investments in business and the stock market took hold after 1982, the
economy has consistenly and significantly grown every quarter with the
exception of the last two quarters of 1990 and the first quarter of 1991
when the transition from the Cold War military industrial economy to today's
high tech economy caused an unavoidable, but temporary, displacement of
workers. The real proof was in the pudding, however, around 1997 and 1998
when "Bill Clinton's" economy took off like a rabbit.
Fueled by a conservative
backlash in the 1994 congressional elections, the Clinton Administration
subsequently signed into law tax cuts resulting from the Contract With
America. The cuts brought our country somewhat back into line with Reagan-like
thinking. President Clinton's motivation of course was to take the credit
for the economy. Clinton must have known that the Reagan machine was beginning
to sputter after the tax increases he signed into law earlier in his first
term rolled the rug back to pre-1982 GDP spending ratios.
Going beyond
just the philosophical bickering, there is a core bitterness which lies
in the hearts of conservatives when they hear critics today still pointing
out that President Reagan's weakest area of domestic policy was his budget
deficits. Yes, they are right. The primary cause of Reagan's second term
deficits was, as political detractors say, Reagan's fault. Yes, it is true
that Ronald Reagan was willing to use the public "Visa Card" to finance
the destruction of the Soviet system of communism.
As it turned
out, this most noble cause in the history and destiny of the world derailed
humankind from what many believed was a ride straight toward the nuclear
anhilation of the planet. And, golly gee, we survived those deficits. Had
we ran a surplus and listened to the "guns for butter" liberal rhetoric
that was swirling around during the 1984 presidential campaign, chances
are we wouldn't be here to talk about how right they were.
Also, it
has finally been proven true that supply side economics and growing the
GNP really does increase revenue when taxes are cut. The Cold War was
one of two variables that delayed that from happening early enough to give
George H. Bush a second term. The second variable that detractors seem
to forget is that while revenue doubled between 1983 and 1988, government
spending nearly tripled.
People who once
chided Jack Kemp and Ronald Reagan for saying they could grow the economy
out of deficits owe them an apology. Those who criticized supply side economics
are the same people today who are arguing against tax cuts for the wealthy
supply siders who paid for the Clinton legacy by eliminating the deficit
with their tax dollars. Al Gore refused to offer across the board tax relief
as a reward to the public that gave him the surplus to run on in his presidential
bid in 2000.
The fact of the
matter is: We have grown the economy out of deficits. The wealthy top 25%
pay 65% of the taxes and provide most of the jobs from which the other
75% earn the money to pay their portion of the tax revenue which has steadily
increased every year, including those years followed by the Newt Gingrich
tax cuts.
Inflation is
also gone. With welfare reform, the investible dollar no longer becomes
the digestible dollar when it goes from worker and business owner to bureaucrat
and benefit recipient. This, combined with an economy tightly run by Reagan
appointee Alan Greenspan, has resulted in what liberal economists in the
1970's and 1980's thought could never happen. Yes, we can have low inflation
and low unemployment at the same time. Reagan spoke of a government that
would remove the anvil of excessive spending and regulation that Americans
once carried on their backs.
The best days
of "Trickle Down Economics" haven't even happened yet. As a result of the
George W. Bush tax plan of 2001, the wealth reinvested in the economy will
eventually end up in the panhandler's cup, the union worker's contract,
the white collar worker's paycheck and the entrepreneur's bank account.
The panhandler, the union worker, the white collar worker and the entrepreneur
will have more money to spend or invest. An increase in consumer spending
and investment means more money will end up cycling back around into company
payroll accounts (if they government keeps their grubby little hands off
of it). This means more jobs and a snowball effect on subsequent "trickle
down and trickle around" cycles. Combine this with the fact that there
is no tax cost to take money we are already putting into social security
and put it into private citizen-owned social security investment accounts
instead, and the sky is the limit.
Back in 1985,
this writer told a classmate at the State University College at Oneonta
New York that they should call it "trickle around" economics instead of
"trickle down". This interpretation of theory is based on the premise that
the smaller the tax bite out of a buck, the more times that buck could
go through the spending and earning cycle, and thus the more wealth it
could create. The tax revenue created by tax cuts is caused by investment
and spending, which gives the government more bucks for the taxable bang
while giving the investor more bang for their investible buck.
It could become
"gusher around" economics under President George W. Bush. The results of
such a "gusher" could actually lead to a condition where people pay more
in tax dollars while paying less in tax percentage of their income. In
other words, as incomes grow, so will everyone's contribution to the public
coffers.
George H. Bush
lost the presidency in 1992 based on a misperception. While the economy
only went down in the last two quarters of 1990 and the first quarter of
1991, it has gone up every other quarter since 1982. That glitch is easily
explained by the grand flexibility our nation displays as an economic power.
Within one year, we lost all the economic advantages of the cold war and
gained all the economic advantages of a technological revolution. At any
other time in this nation's history, the results of our winning the cold
war could have devastated our economy for years, possibly decades.
Winning the cold
war and the ensuing worker displacement caused by layoffs in the defense
industry temporarily stifled the economy during Bush's presidency. This
was merely a small price we had to pay to free the world from nuclear death.
To have kicked out the president who won Desert Storm and held the economy
steady during hard times is one of the greatest injustices the American
people could have ever bestowed upon its leader. But, it takes hindsight
to remind us that sometime we need to look at the bigger picture when judging
our political candidates. Our nation has made it up to George H. Bush by
electing his son to the presidency.
It is truly exciting
to watch the philosophy work. All of the things Ronald Reagan stood for
and put into place are finally coming to fruition. He is truly one of the
greatest American presidents ever. Our nation will be a better place because
his ideas have become our ideas.
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